Insights January 11, 2021

Global moods and forecasts of employers for the beginning of 2021: what can we expect?

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A study by manpowergroup, an international hr solutions firm, surveyed 37,717 public and private sector employers in 43 countries and territories to assess recruitment plans for the first year in 2021. Quarter. The global survey conducted in the exceptional circumstances of COVID-19 reflects the impact of the emergency on the global labor market and the forecasts of employers’ sentiment for January-March.

More people are projected to be employed in the next three months in 19 of the 26 countries in Europe, the Middle East and Africa. An analysis of the intentions of more than 13,000 employers showed that recruitment plans are strengthening in 18 countries compared to the last quarter of 2020, but compared to the same time a year ago, hiring plans in 24 countries have decreased. The strongest regional recruitment plans have been reported in Greece, Turkey and Germany, and the weakest forecasts are given by employers in Great Britain, Switzerland and Austria.

In Britain , job seekers or jobseekers can expect a subdued hiring climate to continue in the coming quarter, with employers reporting -6% net employment*. Over the next three months, as many as seven of the nine industrial sectors are expected to reduce the number of posts. The biggest challenges are foreseen in the areas of transport and transportation, as well as in hotels and retail. More optimistic sentiment prevails in the utilities, finance and business services sectors. Employers in 10 of the 12 regions expect to reduce the number of employees in the coming quarter. Hiring is strengthening in six regions compared to the previous quarter, but is weakening in 10 regions compared to the same time a year ago. While employers in Northern Ireland and London are reporting the weakest regional labour market, east Midland employers predict the fastest pace of employment.

According to employers in Ireland, in 2021. recruitment prospects will improve in the first quarter. The wholesale and retail sectors, as well as restaurants and hotels, are positive. Unlike other countries, the financial and business services sectors are not expected to grow.

For job seekers in Germany , employers are giving the green light and reporting an 8% improvement in net employment. The biggest prospect of hiring is expected in the financial and business services sector (+ 17%) and the construction sector (+ 11%), while the productive sector also forecasts more moderate job growth. The pessimistic scenario sees a decline in net employment for the restaurant and hotel sectors by as much as -13%.

Moderate hiring plans are submitted by Norwegian employers. A slight increase in the number of staff is expected, with the biggest outlook being seen in the construction and financial and business services sectors (+ 8%). Restaurant and hotel employers are announcing their weakest hiring intentions for the third quarter in a row. The saddest recruitment forecasts are made by employers in Oslo.

In Poland , employers expect the mild employment climate to persist over the next three months for the second consecutive quarter. Employment is expected to increase in six of the seven industrial sectors, while labour markets are expected to be particularly strong in the construction sector (+ 18%) and manufacturing (+ 11%). However, employers in the restaurant and hotel sectors are reporting muted employment prospects. Wages are expected to rise in all six regions of Poland in the coming quarter.

Recruitment mood in Lithuania

“In the first quarter of 2021, we will be living in a mood of business restrictions that directly affect the work plans. They are optimistic and intend to continue actively hiring companies from it, financial and professional services, delivery of goods, trade in everyday goods. We see that the growth plans of sales companies depend on the commodity segment and the main sales channels. The sale of groceries and computer equipment online continues to expand, looking for a large number of employees involved in this activity, but, for example, sales of clothing, fashion, footwear are in a state of obscurity, there are still quite a few employees in downtime, and employers are also in a state of on-call duty, waiting for a clear plan and actions on the part of the state.”

– Božena Petikonis-Šabanienė, head of Manpower’s branches in Lithuania and Latvia.

About the study

The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is the longest-running, comprehensive and most long-term forecast-oriented survey of employment plans in the world, conducted since 1962 and covering more than 38,000 public and private sector employers in 43 countries around the world. The purpose of the study is to assess the intentions of employers to recruit or lay off employees in the following quarter of the year.

* Net employment is the percentage difference between employers planning to increase the number of employees and employers declaring a decline in the number of employees in the coming quarter.